Mortgage Rates Edge Up

Mortgage rates rise 0.7 points

Last week, mortgage rates rose an average 0.7 points, according to Freddie Mac. Realtor Magazine reports a “series of recent positive reports showing the housing market on the mend” may have affected mortgage rates, halting the downward trend.

Increase in home sales highest in over a year and a half

Existing home sales for December of last year increased 5 percent from the month prior — the biggest month-to-month increase since May, 2010. It is also a 3.6 percent increase year over year from December 2010, when 4.45 million units were sold.

Recovery on the way?

NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, thinks these may be early signs of a sustained recovery — “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.” (via RealtorMag)

NAR President Moe Veissi believes that with steady improvement in the job market, the housing market will also improve, as more home buyers try to make the most of market conditions — low prices and low rates — in 2012.

Do Some Houses Sell Faster Than Others?

An interesting infographic says “yes”

The site One Block Off the Grid (1bog.org), a free group discount site focused on solar energy solutions for home owners, recently published the following infographic showing some statistics about why some houses sell faster than others.

Good News for Unemployed Homeowners

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announce mortgage forbearance extension

In another move geared to moving the housing market recovery along, the two major mortgage players, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, last week announced expanded relief programs for homeowners struggling with their loans due to joblessness. The thought that relieving some of the stress from the combination of joblessness and mortgage obligations will make it easier for distressed and out-of-work homeowners to focus on finding a new job and getting back on track with their home loan.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Forbearance for Jobless now 12 Months

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae now allow mortgage companies to grant unemployed borrowers payment suspension or reduction for up to 12 months. Previously, the maximum length for mortgage forbearance on Freddie Mac guaranteed loans was six months, with written approval from Freddie Mac.

FHA Forbearance was extended to 12 months last July

The Federal Housing Authority (FHA) made a similar move six months ago, in July 2011, when it mandated that mortgage companies offer 12 months of forbearance to qualified unemployed borrowers — up from a prior maximum of four months.

Nearly 60% of Outstanding Mortgages Backed by Fannie, Freddie and the FHA

The announcement from Freddie and Fannie impacts far more homeowners than did the FHA’s announcement last July — Freddie and Fannie together guarantee nearly half of all U.S. home loans, while the FHA backs less than 10 percent.

For more, read these articles:

• Unemployed Mortgage Holders Get Extension on Payments (The New York Times)
• Mortgage Aid for Unemployed Expanded (Wall Street Journal Developments)
• Fannie Mae unveils new forbearance program for unemployed and Freddie extends mortgage forbearance for unemployed (Housing Wire)

News Flash: Housing is Important to Economic Recovery

Federal Reserve speaks up on the housing market

Consumer Confidence + Tight Credit + Too Much Empty Property = Slow Recovery

Last week the Fed sent a housing “white paper” to Congress discussing the importance of housing to the economic recovery. On Friday, Federal Reserve Governer Elizabeth Duke observed that “housing demand and homebuilding continue to be restrained by weak income and sentiment, tight lending standards, and a large overhang of vacant properties.”

Unemployment Improvement in Fits and Starts

Duke said she sees unemployment trending down and for inflation to settle to levels that are consistent with the Fed’s mandate. Unemployment does seem to be dropping: December’s jobless rate of 8.5 percent was the lowest it’s been in almost two years.

Housing Recovery is Critical to Economic Recovery

Duke also noted that, typically, the housing sector plays an important role in propelling economic recoveries — and that so far, the housing sector has not only contributed to the recovery, but the combination of substantially decreased home values and the hit on consumer confidence has not only slowed consumer spending, it has pushed a substantial number of homeowners underwater on their mortgages.

More Aggressive Government Support May Be the Answer

Both the white paper sent to Congress and Duke’s comments on Friday included suggestions that more aggressive policies and action from the government may be required to boost the housing market and spur economic recovery. According to Duke,

“policymakers should at least consider policies that take into account the role the GSEs [government-sponsored enterprises] could play in hastening the healing of the housing market rather than focusing entirely on minimizing losses to the GSEs. In the end, breaking the current logjam created by large numbers of loans severely past due or in foreclosure and high levels of distressed sales should help reduce losses to the GSEs by breaking the downward cycle in prices. And, I think it is plausible that a faster recovery in the housing markets could speed, rather than slow, the end of GSE conservatorship,”

For more of Duke’s comments at the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2012 Financial Forecast, and perspective on the Fed’s position on the housing market and recovery:

• Economic Developments, Risks to the Outlook, and Housing Market Policies (Elizabeth Duke’s speech)
• Fed governor suggests tight underwriting is stalling recovery (Housing Wire)
• Fed’s Duke Sees ‘Choppy” U.S. Job Market Amid Gradual Recovery (Bloomberg Businessweek)
• Fed Up With the State of Housing (Wall Street Journal|Heard On The Street)

Housing Market: What’s Behind and What’s Ahead

 

The housing market in 2011 was a year that saw changing trends and breaking records.

Mortgage Rates

15- and 30-year fixed mortgages hit record lows during 2011. via money.CNN.com

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan averaging 3.91% last week, the lowest in the 40 years of the survey’s history. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.21% — also a record low.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain low well into 2012.

Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, commented that “for well-qualified buyers interest rates should be no impediment to home buying in 2012.”

Foreclosures & Loans

There were 14% fewer foreclosure notices served in November year-over-year. via Business Week

The  rate of foreclosure filings slowed considerably in 2011, as banks and servicers responded to the documentation and processing challenges from 2010.

The foreclosure liquidation rate is anticipated to rise next year. via Zillow.com

With the settlement between the states’ attorneys general coalition and the major lenders and servicers coming to a head, Zillow sees an increase “either in conjunction with a settlement… or, alternatively, in the aftermath of the settlement effort falling apart.”

Home Values

The slide in home values since 2008 slowed in 2011. via International Business Times

Zillow projects that home values will fall 35% less this year than in 2010; and the Case-Shiller Home Prices indices show that the rate of decline slowed from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter (from 5.8% to 3.9%).

Home values will likely fall a bit more to finally bottom out in 2012.

Jonathon Miller, president and CEP of Miller Samuel, predicts that the decline will be considerably less than this year.

Home Sales & Starts

In 2011, new single-family home sales are on pace to hit a record low of 301,000. via Business Week

On the flip side, however, existing home sales rose to 4.42 million this fall, the highest in 10 months.

Total home starts (houses and apartments) jumped 9.3% month-over-month. via Internation Business Times

This rise from October to November represents the fastest pace in more than 18 months. Although single-family home construction remains stalled, Fitch Ratings projects a 6.7% gain in residential housing starts next year.

Confidence

The Housing Market Index rose to 21 from last month’s 19. via Mortgage News Daily

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) surveys its members monthly to compile the index. Although not huge, 20 is the highest the index has been since May 2010.

 

 

 

 

Are Home Values Finally Stabilizing?

Zillow Real Estate’s latest market report says maybe

On a year-over-year basis, the Zillow® Home Value index declined 5.1 percent. Zillow reports that “the rate of monthly depreciation has stabilized around -0.2 to -0.3 percent over the last few months.”

Of the 156 metropolitan statistical areas covered by Zillow, while 95 showed monthly depreciation in home values, 39 areas actually saw an increase in monthly home value this past October. Twenty-two (22) areas remained flat.

The nine markets that saw the largest year-over-year home value increases from October 2010 to October 2011?

• Tulsa, OK— one-year price gain of 6.2%
• Oklahoma City, OK — one year price gain of 3.1%
• Lincoln, NE — one year price gain of 2.7%
• Madison, WI — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Honolulu, HI — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Fort Collins, CO — one year price gain of 1.3%
• Fort Myers, FL — one year price gain of 0.4%
• Pittsburgh, PA — one year price gain of 0.4%
• Boulder, CO — one year price gain of 0.2%

Another sign of stabilization is the decline in the foreclosure liquidation rate — at 8.1 out of every 10,000 homes being liquidated as of October, 2011 — down from the all-time high of 10.7 out of every 10,000 homes in October, 2010. That’s a drop of nearly 25 percent.

For more details on the Zillow Home Value Index and the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Report, check out these articles:

• U.S. Home Values Continued Fall in October; Rate of Decline Stabilizes (MarketWatch)
• Real Estate Markets: Top 9 Gainers in 2011 (Huffington Post)
• A Bit of Good Real Estate News? (Realty Times)

The Housing Market One or Two?

Analysts disagree over definition and future of the market

Last week, while some real estate analysts offered a somewhat rosy outlook regarding “stabilizing home prices for non-distressed property,” several industry experts from news sources argued that you cannot simply split the market in two pieces — distressed and non-distressed to paint the picture you want.

So what’s the bottom line? Is the market flat, dropping or rising?

Month over month, CoreLogic report that home prices overall fell 3.9 percent in October, and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was down 3.9 percent in September (which represents a three month running average of both distressed and non-distressed sales).

Removing the distressed sales(foreclosures and short sales) from CoreLogic’s analysis, however, home prices fell just 0.5 percent in October.

The Wall Street Journal noted that for the first nine months of 2011, non-distressed property prices were relatively stable, with only a two to three percent decline year over year. A real estate analyst from Barclays, a proponent of looking at the two market segments separately, feels that if the pricing trend continues (distressed pricing dropping while non-distressed pricing stabilizes), it could have the effect of “stabilizing something else: home-buyer confidence.” Only time will tell.

For more details, see:

• This blog post on HSH: Home prices may be more stable than we think
• CNBC Real Estate Reporter Diana Olick’s article, Are There Really Two Housing Markets?
•  WSJ mortgage and housing writer, Nick Timiraos’ post: Why Home Prices Are (and Aren’t) Stabilizing

More and More Experts Say Principal Reduction Is the Answer

Why does the head of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac refuse to consider it?

Last week, a group of Democrats from the House sent a letter to Edward DeMarco (who currently heads up the agency (FHFA) that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) asking for a better answer as to why he refuses to implement a principal reduction program at Fannie and Freddie.

The letter cites industry experts, all of whom advocate principal reduction as necessary to bring the housing market and economy out of the dumps, including:

• Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke
• a former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
• a former Vice Chairman of the Fed
• a former Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program

Even Greg Lippman, the former Deutsche Bank AG trader who made a fortune betting against subprime mortgages, has weighed in on the side of mortgage reduction. Now chief investment officer for a New York-based hedge fund, Lippman wrote a letter to investors saying “principal reductions are necessary to help ameliorate the housing crisis.” (For more on Lippman’s perspective and additional expert opinions, read this Bloomberg News article.)

DeMarco claimed in a Nov. 16^th hearing that his agency has “concluded that the use of principal reduction within the context of a loan modification is not going to be the least-cost approach for the taxpayer.” (For a great summary of DeMarco’s exchange with Rep. John Tierney (D-MA), read this post on Fire Dog Lake.)

According to the Democrats behind the letter, DeMarco has too long been spouting “superficial excuses about why principal reduction programs are not feasible at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, despite a growing chorus of economists and other experts who believe these programs serve the long-term interests of taxpayers.”

Felix Salmon, an award winning financial journalist, boils the likely real reasoning behind DeMarco’s stance down to the following:

If we [the FHFA]do principal reductions, the accounting conventions finally grow some teeth, and we’re forced to take a write-down. Since we don’t want to recognize reality and take that write-down, we’re simply going to avoid doing principal reductions instead.” (read Salmon’s full post on “Ed DeMarco’s Obstructionism” here)

The Democrats’ letter calls for DeMarco to provide documentation that proves there are statutory provisions preventing FHFA from letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reduce mortgage principal. In addition, they asked DeMarco for an analysis that compares the financial implications of foreclosures with the cost of debt reduction. DeMarco’s deadline to provide these documents is December 9^th. 

Holiday Mortgage News. More of the Same

Rates continue to hover near historic lows

The short holiday week saw little change in mortgage rates.

According to Mortgage News Daily, the Best-Execution Rates for Friday, November 25^th ranged from 3.875% (“very few”) to 4.125% (“some”), with most seen at 4.0%. Realty Times reported the results of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the three-day week:

• 30-year fixed-ratemortgage averaged just under 4.0%, down from 4.40% a year ago
• Average rate for 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) reached a new low of 2.91%, down from 3.45% last year
• Average rate for 1-year ARMs was 2.79%, down from 3.23% last year

Although home sales were slightly up in October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), they could have been even better had there not also been a high number of failed sale contracts in October. NAR’s chief economist attributes the failed contracts in part to appraised values not matching the negotiated sale price and to tight credit standards.

Time to Be Thankful For Housing Market News?

Recent forecasts predict better times ahead in 2012

Although small, a slight uptick in the housing market next year is predicted. A survey by MacroMarkets of more than 100 economists and industry experts shows they expect home values to go up — just a little. About .25 percent in 2012 and a total of 1.1 percent through 2015.

Slowing the recovery down are the many foreclosures clogging the market. A recent article in Money Magazine notes that Freddie Mac predicts that in 2012, 4.8 million homes will be sold in total, while there are more than 5 million homes for sale. The market considers six months of housing inventory to be healthy — more than a year’s worth of inventory is a sign that the going will be tough to return to healthy market conditions.

For buyers and sellers in 2012, the recommendations are to “think small” and “price smart.” For buyers, looking at smaller properties mean smaller loans, smaller payments and smaller home costs overall (energy, water, etc.). For sellers, working with — and listening to — an experienced Realtor when it comes to setting the sale price of their home is critical. According to Trulia, about 25 percent of homes it tracks has reduced its price at least once, by an average of about eight percent.

And of course, for homeowners not looking to sell, now is the time to look at refinancing, as mortgage rates continue to hover at all-time lows. Considering that just recently 15-year mortgage rates were more than half a point less than 30-year mortgage rates, a homeowner who could afford the higher payment could refinance a $250,000 mortgage with a 15-year loan and save more than $100,000 over the life of the loan compared to a 30-year mortgage.